Sign up to HC with a new email and name. Im sure you won't go to jail.

General Discussion

More Data to Support a Cardiac-Oncologic Partnership
https://www.jacc.org/doi/10.1016/j.jaccao.2023.01.002 [link]

"Although doxorubicin is used to treat many tumors in addition to sarcoma, such as breast cancer, and lymphoma, because of the availability of other effective treatments, the potential cardiotoxicity of doxorubicin can be “managed” by limiting the dose and potentially using another therapy. However, with sarcomas, there is no other treatment as effective as doxorubicin, so treatment of sarcomas can be described as giving doxorubicin until toxicity, cardiac or otherwise, or until there is
progression of the tumor from the development of resistance."

Sounds like Zantrene could be very helpful here.

Pillar 1 - Zantrene / AML & Cardioprotection

Demethylase FTO enhances the PI3K/Akt signaling to promote gastric cancer malignancy
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12032-023-01990-2 [link]




FTO-mediated m6A modification promotes malignant transformation of gastric mucosal epithelial cells in chronic Cag A+ Helicobacter pylori infection
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00432-023-04684-4 [link]


FTO Related Research

This post certainly threw everyone off the scent, didn't it?













RAC Media Coverage

Been a while now since the last post on AX1 but what a difference has occurred. An absolutely stellar run since the end of the Covid era.




As a charting comment this is a great example of volume being so important in looking at a stock and anticipating some moves. Those areas are circled.




AX1 had such momentum that even the ex - dividend date didn't really slow it down (arrowed).




[image]

Accent Group

Updating WKT after a bit of a rocky road for the company, a cap. raising and financial moves.




Since settling into a new share price envelope WKT has been consolidating. The weekly bar this week has held within the confines of the previous weeks breakout bar so that's OK. Any further consolidation above 12/12.5 would be a satisfactory spot to be in.




[image]


Chart thread

The answer is you don't need to know the mechanism of action for approval, but it will make your life much easier if your do. I am confident that we will be able to figure it out.

Industry news - New thread

Nothing to report at this stage. Everything is progressing as expected.

Ann: Ethics submission to commence cardioprotection trial

Charts & Price Action

Sounds like a great plan Teeth - great effort collating this. Surely some news dropping this week to set the platform for your post!!

A Brief Introduction to Race Oncology

Are you able to elaborate on what is going on with the new formulation apart from waiting for the delivery from the manufacturer to start the trials and trial designs? Keen to hear any updates and news.




If it is price sensitive question I will understand. Thanks.

Ann: (!) Race Develops Improved IV Formulation of Zantrene

I'm guessing that we haven't hit the $6m month yet as we probably would have had an announcement by now.


Update of monthly sales estimates

I'm pretty sure RAC would be filtering out any patients that do not want to participate in a trial, are unable to attend a trial location, or have any other factors that would make them ineligible for participation in the as a first step. They're not going to bother fully screening a random AML patient, finding EMD and then ask them if they'd consider participation in a trial.




So I would assume the probabilities largely stand as @Murgambit [link] outlined them. The only real factors are what actual percentage of AML patients have EMD (is it really as high as 25%) and the number of eligible, available and interested patients that RAC can find and screen.




Also, unless I've forgotten high school maths after all these years, the probabilities given are that of finding one or more patients with EMD (i.e. 1 - probability of not finding any with EMD) from the number screened, i.e. not of finding just a single patient. So for example, for 8 patients screened, it should more accurately read that there is a 1 - 0.75^8 = 90% chance of finding at least one patient suitable.




If though it turns out only 10% of AML patients have EMD, after screening 8 patients it drops to only a 57% chance of finding at least one suitable patient. At 17.5% EMD (the middle ground), we have a 79% chance of finding at least one suitable patient. So a lot will depend on the actual prevalence of EMD, which still seems to be up for some debate, though generally it seems agreed that actual numbers are under-counted (probably due to lack of screening and treatment options as discussed here
previously).

Ann: December 2022 Preclinical & Clinical Programs Update

Stars aligning for a potential near-term partnership with AMGEN

The m6A demethylase FTO promotes keloid formation by up-regulating COL1A1

https://atm.amegroups.com/article/view/108223/html [link]




"This study indicated that glucocorticoid treatment significantly inhibited the expression of FTO. In addition, glucocorticoids suppressed the up-regulation of COL1A1 and inhibited cell migration induced by FTO overexpression. This demonstrates that glucocorticoids can treat keloids by decreasing the expression of FTO."




"As far as we know, this is the first study to explore the regulatory relationship between FTO and keloids, providing a theoretical experimental foundation for future keloid treatment research."




Yet another use for Zantrene?

Pillar 3 - Beyond Zantrene / New m6a regulating molecules

Thought I'd start cross posting some of my hotcopper posts here to encourage some interactions.




On second attempt no rejection of move to 5.2c. The longs need it to hold 5.0c imho otherwise there's a decent area of no previous support or resistance so if it cuts through 5c, that in my view makes it likely to attempt to at minimum close the gap at 4.2c, below that 3.9c and 3.4c support lines look more solid (i.e. more previous trading activity at about those levels).

[image]




[image]


[link]

[link]

MEI Chart Discussion

PNV managed to absorb the effect of the cap. raising (arrowed) and has recovered to pre-existing price levels. Just at this price level a triple top looks like forming and with the last bar a doji maybe just a little weakness occuring. Still, an increase in volume and effort could see this resistance break.




[image]


PNV charting

MNS just plodding along on relatively light volume. The sp is maintaining that consolidation channel fairly easily with no real supply threats. A share that appears to be "in waiting" for some news.




[image]

Charting thread

AGE well into accumulation.




[image]








AGE Charting

Is it be possible that a patient, confirmed to have EMD in this trial, could then be eligible to participate in Rac’s AUS EMD trial? 

Ann: (!) Race supports Study of Extramedullary AML

Good work Dr T. 




@RaceOncology [link]

Ann: Appendix 3Y - Dr Daniel Tillett

Some great points in there, especially agree with showing the opportunity vs existing elephants




Diminishing returns on name changes though. We've already added confusion with Zantrene, would hesitate before changing to Race Therapeutics or some such. 




Ann: (!) Race Appoints Damian Clarke-Bruce as CEO & Managing Director

Makes a bit of a mess with the chart @DonQixote [link] - but certainly explains that long period of capping and accumulation. See where it settles if there is a bidding war, if not it'll just consolidate here.
[image]

Nwe Thread

Perhaps the study is along the same lines as the following with FTO cardio protect T2D focus, based on similiar titles.




https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6207942/ [link]


Ann: (!) Quarterly Activity Report & Appendix 4C

Yes, Mr Phil-lynch. Always good to know that key players put down their own cash. 







Ann: Danny Sharp appointed Independent Non-Executive Director

If only that was possible to be done. You can't give out options selectively like this.

Ann: Proposed issue of securities - RAC

There is so much going on in the FTO space that you need to be open to change at any point. This is both the positive and negative about being first in class in a new, but very hot area. 

Ann: Race 2022 AGM Presentations

Noted that is the number (50) of patients listed on the 2b part of the cardio protection slide from the AGM presentation. 




Not sure if I enjoyed the AGM video or the two and a half beers it took to watch more but it was compelling viewing and certainly not wasted time. If Race make it over to WA I will make an effort to attend. 

Ann: (!) Positive Pre-IND Guidance from FDA on Zantrene

Kicking off a new thread on Andromeda Metals - announced today another binding offtake agreement for its Concrete Additive product HRM today for up to 30,000 tonnes at between $1000 and $1500 per tonne.  If you took the middle price then that would be around $37.5 Million in revenue for the full amount. The takeaways are that this is for only NZ and Australia at this stage so potential for global distribution. Also the price is from the gate, there should be a good margin on this low cost
product. 

Another positive step forward on top of other binding offtakes and still the Carbon Capture plant to come. 

R

 bought 2 ( small ) parcels in the past week  , but  expect more of a down-trend in the coming year  ( some via increasing costs , and logistics glitches )




 i will consider buying small parcels  in the dips ( depending on the news )

 remember this is more a bottom-drawer  ( income stock) for me 




 i am not expecting a double or triple bagger  here 

Ann: (!) GrainCorp upgrades FY22 earnings guidance

Nothing wrong with the daily chart either @Kimi [link]




[image]


Ann: Notification regarding unquoted securities - TAR

@RaceOncology [link] I'm ok with setting aside some BB funds for a sweet 16th party for you 😉

Ann: Change in substantial holding

That was one part, but also the EMD AML trial. This was well underway before David joined. 

Ann: Chief Medical Officer Appointment

The late August break of the consolidation area did break out but AGE couldn't hold that momentum and fell back below that old 60 area.




Perhaps the most frustrating for holders is the period of accumulation which is occurring now.  Makers and pro's will mark time here with some testing for supply/demand. Some sort of capitulation will possibly be a sign of a move out of here .




[image]


Ann: Melbourne Investor Briefing Invitation

ditto, and I've abstained cutting  my hair til after the AGM 

Ann: Date of AGM and Closing Date for Director Nominations

Now that's the way to do a speeding ticket response.




"I dont know, but it could be this list of umpteen things that have knocked their socks off"


Ann: (!) Response to ASX Price Query

And that’s just the sales for a generic drug.….




A new patented Zantrene-Doxorubicin co-formulation will sell for many multiples of this if the thesis is proved up that it both protects the patients hearts and has better cancer killing efficacy. 




Very much looking forward to seeing the Cardioprotection trial design; timelines to initiate patient recruitment and of course Dr Aaron Sverdlov’s paper being published. 

Ann: (!) Zantrene Protects Mouse Hearts from Chemotherapy Damage

A return to a bit of weakness evident in the chart of IXR. Relative volume has dropped off a fair bit and recent bars are showing a lack of interest really from the pro's/makers. 




Perhaps those two supply bars of the 7th and the 10th October concerned the market a bit and they've just backed off a bit and left IXR to test support.




[image]

IXR charting

One would have needed to work out that COH's patent application would be rejected.

Bisantrene wasn't patented by RAC as being an FTO inhibitor, but COH was still unsuccessful in its patent attempt.

Ann: (!) Race Initiates New Drug Discovery Program

Make no mistake … this is an Extremely BULLISH move by Dr T… potentially tipping in nearly another half million cash (out of pocket) for only a marginal/ minuscule  % increase in his shareholding.

That minuscule increase in % holding will not make a meaningful change in the end result for Dr T if all goes to plan … but if it doesn’t go to plan, that half a million is huge extra investment for an individual (no matter who you are). 

Personally I would have opted for cashless conversion … which is a no lose outcome for the options. But then again I am not an INSIDER CSO!!!

Bought another 10,000 shares this morning. And probably may even get more. 

So there was buyback, but only at a low level and not at the previous prices




Tomorrow's announcement will be interesting given the price range so far today

Ann: Update - Notification of buy-back - RAC

Folks, I've suggested a Lithium topic for review. IMO it is justified as the sector is the talk of the town, most would agree I'm sure.

Ann: (!) Results of BMX Auction

Indexinvestor answered already what != means. 




BG continues to sell on a fairly constant basis at around 15% of daily volume. All of this is well known as it can be observed via the broker data which is publicly available. 




Right now we are in a fairly low volume ”normal churn” market - some shareholders leave and some new shareholders come in. Looking at the T20 data released in the last Annual Report (with the exception of BG) there has been a general drift of shares from small shareholders to the large shareholders over the last 12 months.




Biotech is a very cyclical sector with large swings in prices. Compared to most of our peers the RAC SP has done OK over the last 18 months, but anyone investing in biotechs needs to have a high tolerance for being in the red and be willing to back their own research and not just follow the market into the latest fad.

just watched a repeat of "Are you paying attention, so funny...then I read Garys post...hilarious what a clown

Ann: (!) Race Receives Governance Approval for AML EMD & MDS Trial

Great to see the numbers of shares being bought at these value levels after lots of small buys.  Happy to see it spread out until we start seeing the interest we had last year (it was last year right?) right after heart safety announcements took us back to $3.72 levels.




Really doesn’t matter who is selling, BG or others, not a thing the moaners can do about it.

 ah yes  !  my largest holding  ( despite selling down 66%    of the holding after the SYD divestment )




 i bought in as low as $20   in 2011 ( av. SP $26,76 )




 but what of the rest of the year  ??




 chaos , disruptions and uncertainty  everywhere  and this company is ( rightfully so ) seen as HIGHER risk  and entangled in a complex structure 




 IMO  something to watch  if the markets ( local and global ) markets  melt down 




 could be a dip-buyers delight  ( just remember that risk factor )




 take care 




 DYOR


Ann: (!) Macquarie Group FY22 Media Release

 sadly i was hoping for a DRP price  closer to $11  given the current div. payout  ( and trivial franking credits )




 i hold QBE ( and participate in the DRP )




 would be flaming nerve wracking   sitting on this  as a straight buy'n'hold if you bought in the last seven years 


Ann: Update - Dividend/Distribution - QBE




 0. We shouldn't forget about Dr Guy Breitenbucher who joined the SAB. Super Chemist able to solve complex issues regarding drug formulations. 

@RaceOncology [link] How often do you chat with the likes of Guy, Chen and Co. Do you have scheduled chats or are they more just on call when you need advice? Oh when is Chen going to start calling Zantrene, Zantrene- "the latest drug transforming cancer treatment" rather than sticking to CS1- " the boring 100yr old chemo drug"? 🤣




Got a nice crew of Smart people on board thats for sure. 




Zantrene Formulations

Hàha Thanks 👍..I'll take a juicy PS announcement any day this month not fussy !

depends on why you are buying into FMG




 yes , it is going into  a new R&D field  for growth ( and maybe even some cost-saving down the track )




 i bought in as  a reasonable div. payer    with a chance of potential growth 




  yes i added  some  extra when it dipped below $15  , but where is the true value 




 interesting times ahead 

Nothing to see here!

Hi @basia




I'm not tracking that aspect. Just the revenues. 




...

Ann: (!) Trading Update Q3 FY22

Partnership

https://www.science.org/content/article/new-forms-red-devil-cancer-drug-could-spare-hearts [link]







Safer Doxo versions have little or no corporate interest because there is no patent protection.  What if there was a drop in replacement with anti cancer cardio protection properties?

Pillar 2 - Zantrene Optimised for FTO

I'm very biased towards the "when" I just dont like to post it online to others. 😎

Ann: Notification of cessation of securities - RAC

Ann: RAC Quarterly Investor Presentation

$ADN #ADN this is a great announcement for ADN

Shows there is a good diversity of customers and countries and demand for quality product at premium prices.




GLTAH

Ann: (!) Andromeda signs Binding Halloysite-Kaolin Offtake Term Sheet

A nice break of that trendline for AEE this week with a tradeable move upwards. Friday's bar saw supply and a retest of the trendline could be possible which will present another opportunity to enter.




[image]







AEE charting

A good announcement that will lead to faster development and a wider audience to what PTX have to offer, so a major step in the Company's journey. Whether it moves the SP in this macro climate remains to be seen, though biotech, after months of severe falls, is holding its own while the rest of the market takes a hit.

Ann: (!) US FDA Grants Orphan Drug Designation to PTX-100 for PTCL

Yes, the low volumes and reduced volatility lately are evidence that BG wasn't the main problem.




BG sells a fixed proportion of volume, so if volume is artificially inflated, the selling pressure from BG increases automatically. 




BG just sitting there on 2 or 3 million shares without dumping them doesn't hurt anyone.

Ann: (!) Race Oncology Announces On-Market Share Buyback

@kurtle [link] Can you please look into the issue of blocked user’s posts still showing up? There are some annoying folks around. Thanks in advance.

Test Thread #14

With increasing interest in Uranium stocks many have tested the lows and are consolidating. Bannerman is no different with the market pro's continually testing for supply and/or demand resulting in a few doji bars.




[image]


BMN charting

FIrst time post.

Been a holder of LTR for a few years.

Better day today. Hope it holds.




Charting Thread

"Carfilzomib doesn't get into solid tumours so you can imagine what happens when it is used to treat EMD MM patients on its own"




They get heart damage without any improvement in the EMD MM??

Ann: (!) EMD AML MDS Trial Expands to Europe

I won't be upset if RAC delays approaching potential partners until there are more institutions on the share register.

Ann: (!) Zantrene AML trial in Israel advances to Phase 2

I was thinking that's some sort of reverse inflation going on in lambo land bahaha

Ann: (!) Zantrene shows synergy with kinase inhibitors in melanoma

Are you able to comment if the new buying is retail or not? (I am sure you cannot comment on insto buying).




It has been interesting that whenever the SP gets smacked down, in the next 10 minutes you can the price being uplifted into green territory. I have observed this pattern since last Thursday (as I was hoping for the Buyback action). Seems like the buyer knows what they are doing and they are active throughout the day with similar activities.

Ann: (!) Zantrene Improves Immune Therapy Treatment of Melanoma

AZS has been a disappointment for holders, but it's hard to fight a general market downturn and AZS has been no different.




I always look for some sort of capitulation volume along with a reasonable recovery on the day so following on from the last bar perhaps there might be  a slowing of the downtrend approaching.




[image]


 


AZS Charting thread

Thanks - yep I think if you dont worry about the share price now but are happy with making 3x minimum (my guess) from here in 2024 then nothing to worry about.


General Comments

Apart from the patent issue, COH would have known from the outset that CS1 and CS2 were sourced from a data bank and weren't new drugs.




So yes, plenty of poetic license.




Maybe their lawyers edited the draft article.

Ann: Zantrene data published in Cancer Research Journal

They didn’t mention how they’ve been working hard on getting RAC sp down, down, down.

MOF News Letters

Anal Chem


 * 
 * 
 * 

. 2022 Mar 22;94(11):4695-4702 [tel:4695-4702].
 doi: 10.1021/acs.analchem.1c04889.Epub 2022 Mar 8.


METAL-ENHANCED AGGREGATION-INDUCED EMISSION STRATEGY FOR THE HIV-I RNA-BINDING LIGAND ASSAY

Jun Li [link] 1 [link], Yao-Yao Fan [link] 1 [link], Jie Wen [link] 1 [link], Jing Zhang
[link] 1 [link], Zhi-Qi Zhang [link] 1 [link]
Affiliations expand
 * PMID: 35258935
    
 * DOI: 10.1021/acs.analchem.1c04889 [link]


ABSTRACT

The HIV-Ι trans-activation responsive (TAR) RNA-trans-activator of transcription (Tat) protein complex is crucial for the efficient transcription of the integrated human immunodeficiency virus-I genome and is an established therapeutic target for AIDS diagnosis and treatment. Developing a sensitive strategy for the TAR RNA-binding ligand assay could provide antiviral leads with a radically new mechanism for the treatment of AIDS. Herein, a new TAR RNA-binding ligand assay platform was
established using a signal amplification strategy that combines aggregation-induced emission (AIE) with a metal-enhanced fluorescence (MEF) concept. The tetraphenylethylene (TPE) derivative was labeled on the Tat peptide as a fluorescent molecule, while the TAR RNA was immobilized on the surface of the Fe3O4@Au@Ag@SiO2 nanoparticles (NPs) to specifically bind the TPE-Tat peptide. The TPE-Tat peptide was weakly emissive itself while emitting strongly in the NP-TAR-TPE-Tat complex by the AIE and
MEF signal amplification effect. It was confirmed by known Tat peptide competitors that this system could be applied to the screening and detection of TAR RNA-binding ligands because they could replace the TPE-Tat peptide from the complex and make the system fluorescence decrease. When this system was adopted to test four candidate ligands, it was found that bisantrene had a favorable TAR RNA-binding ability. The proposed AIE-MEF strategy not only provides a sensitive and reliable method for the
TAR RNA-binding ligand assay but also can avoid the influence of ligands on fluorescent detection in the conventional displacement assay.

have no idea what this means, but it sounds like Zantrene is useful for HIV in some way?









Industry News

Boron has been shown in laboratory studies to be effective against cancer cells. 




In fact, it's often cited as a natural alternative to chemotherapy and radiation therapy. 




While the research is still in its early stages, there's enough evidence to suggest that boron could play a role in cancer prevention and treatment.




So far, the most promising use of boron appears to be in the treatment of breast cancer.

Boron and the war on Cancer

While we wait for RAC to announce the updated results from the Israeli trial and come off trading halt ... I have reviewed Dr T's previous comments on the Israeli trial and the last 4C Quarterly Update. The Israeli trial may not be the most exciting announcement by end of June! Just 4 weeks away, with more exciting announcements to drop at any stage. 

Interesting that Dr JC and Dr T seem to have different views on the Israeli trial ... "coming up to an exciting time ... reporting ... data ... from Isreal (Dr JC) " and " Israeli trial ... not one of the major drivers of long term value (Dr T) ". 

Question: Is it possible to get excited about data that is not one of the major drivers of long term value? I guess the market will give us its own view when RAC comes off TH. But then again, the market is not always right in the short term.




[image][image][image]


Ann: (!) Trading Halt

Ann: (!) Pause in Trading

Kleos Space (KSS)

 

 * Tomorrow ‘Quad’ expected to announce system to track illegal fishing by China. From the Financial Times:

 

·         "The initiative will use satellite technology to connect existing surveillance centres in Singapore, India and the Pacific to create a tracking system for illegal fishing from the Indian Ocean and south-east Asia to the South Pacific, according to the official. The system will allow the US and its partners to monitor illegal fishing even when fishing boats have turned off the transponders that are typically used to track maritime vessels."




 * https://www.ft.com/content/4066cc72-119a-48e2-b55c-980c4e3f6c9 [link]
 * KSS is definitely in the right industry!
 * Weekly Chart: KSS Share Price sitting at 0.618 fib support: 




[image]

KSS may benefit from the Quad?

Not in industry. We have approval from his employer to allow him to be on the Race SAB, not something we would be able to do with Guy if we were working in the Neuro area.

Ann: Dr Guy Breitenbucher joins Race SAB

Never thought i would be seeing this headline ☹️

NASDAQ: FEAM announced a breakthrough in boron facility technology.




The new approach creates an activated boron mineral using a plasma torch, which is subsequently employed as a catalyst in numerous industrial processes.




The activated boron mineral is reported to be more effective and ecologically friendlier than standard catalysts.




Know more here. https://borates.today/feam-technology-boron/ [link]

Breakthrough in boron facility technology.

NASDAQ: FEAM's “5e” strategy is centered on five themes: entrepreneurial mindset, execution excellence, empowering employees, enabling technology, and embracing change.

The long-term commitments

With the global market for EVs expected to grow rapidly in the coming years, demand for boron advanced materials is also expected to increase. As a result, companies like NASDAQ: FEAM are well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the EV market.

How much boron a typical ICE vehicle consists of?

In addition to NASDAQ: FEAM’s work with the farmers, they are also working with the California's state government to promote policies that will protect and improve California's farmland. They believe that by working together, they can make a difference and help to ensure that California's farmers can continue to produce the food that America needs as per a study by MST Access.

Here’s how mining companies are assisting California's farmers

As per MST Access, there is a great deal of debate around whether or not the US government should provide assistance to the development of NASDAQ: FEAM's Fort Cady project. While some view that the government should play a role in helping to facilitate the project, others believe that it should remain independent from any sort of governmental involvement.

Should the US government provide assistance?

Following the renegotiation of the earn-in agreement associated with its purchase of Salt Wells in 2018, there were some expectations that NASDAQ: FEAM would be required to make a total capital commitment of $2.9M from 2022 through 2025, for a total investment of $3.0M (including 2021's $100k) in Salt Wells.

Salt Wells

I think that technically a new IND would be required if the manufacturer changed halfway. 

The Fort Cady boron project, owned by NASDAQ: FEAM, is situated in Southern California. The deposit is a type of boron-containing ore known as colemanite. In order to extract the boron from the ore, the company plans to utilize in-situ leach (ISL) mining, also referred to as solution mining. Solution mining is a type of extraction that involves injecting water or other

liquids into an ore deposit in order to dissolve and extract the desired element or compound.

In-situ leach (ISL) mining- In brief

Yeah I was thinking of saying to him there is something over here he should take a look at.


PNV Media Thread

Boron carbide is a black crystalline compound of boron and carbon. It is one of the hardest known materials, and has a wide range of applications in industry, including abrasives, bulletproofing, and nuclear reactive armor.




The United States is the largest consumer of boron carbide, with approximately 3,000 tons used annually. NASDAQ: FEAM is a leading global supplier of boron carbide products, and is well-positioned to benefit from continued growth in demand.

Boron Carbide

Boron is a fairly rare element, but it is found in a number of different places around the world. The largest concentration of boron is in the United States, where the mining company NASDAQ: FEAM is a well-positioned global leader in the production of the element. Boron is found in a number of different minerals, but the most common source is borate deposits.

Where is boron found?

The next 9 months to see out the year are going to be something to look forward to here at Provaris. Things could be a lot clearer on the future come 2023

Ann: (!) Quarterly Activity Report - March 2022

Bigger new than the market gave it credit for!
Bucher a good sized player globally with half a bill in revenue in Oz. They’d be keen to see the outcome of this “experiment“ and look to be first in class/best in class!

Ann: (!) Collaboration on hydrogen Waste Collection Trucks

Possible share price values once producing in late 2022




36kt of Cu and 10k oz of Au over first 3 years.




Rough calculations using Copper at $14,000 AUD, AISC at $7,000 AUD and gold at $2,700 AUD per ounce gives about $280m profit over years 1 to 3. That's about $93m per year.




With 1.2b shares on issue that's about 8c per share and here are some current PEs for Copper producers ...




[image]

So lets say 8c at a PE of 8 which is a share price of 64c or 8c at a PE of 16 which is $1.28




I know they are only rough. I'm working on something more accurate by using 29M as a comparative.




Point of exercise, current share price is still just 9c with only ~5 months from first sales.




Looks very low to me.







   ....







Near term Copper producer

Ann: Becoming a substantial holder

By backtesting.

i.e. apply your current method to 3 years old company data and see if it picks the winners retrospectively.

Thoughts on position sizing

I wish the SP was going the other way than it has been of late, but the workload at RAC has only been going up. The amount of projects and activities going is growing and growing - while the market seems unimpressed right now I am hopeful that it will be in the future when it sees the results.

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